Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The mean count of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent official figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal better countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x higher than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

But, security experts warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may mask periods when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.