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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."