Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
