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At first, Trump gave the impression to take a firm position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious consequences" in August if Russia's president carried on hindering truce discussions, he ultimately imposed considerable sanctions on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' representatives without Ukrainian or European involvement, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would effectively reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate past, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like giving Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a destroyed area of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an appealing example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening dictatorship denies them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in status the currently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Putin a open path to Kyiv if he later opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional conflict simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the numbers of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "All radical doctrine and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin endanger his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan includes Russia commit not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should we have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. While the plan promises a "immediate unified defense action" should Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from deploying troops on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Russia from restoring his reduced troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. But different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not